Multistage Decision-Making
When critically thinking about my own
decision-making process I believe that I use a certain type of formula,
although not at all like the one outlined by Wharton that is described as
dynamic programming. Maybe if I were a little more mathematically inclined and
understood those equations enough to be able to apply them to everyday decision
making I would be better off with more optimal outcomes.
According to Wharton School,
if you use the dynamic programming, then all the values and probabilities are
known, so the answer should then be straight forward. Of course, Wharton also
says that this type of decision making is more of a business move and not a
personal one.
Wharton also lists two assumptions about problem
solving that leads straight to poor decisions: complete forward planning and
optimal learning.
Basically, when you look to far ahead and anticipate
all possible outcomes and when you completely rely on past information to
change your outlook. My decision making skills seem to fall squarely on both of
these violations.
Everything I do, every decision I make, I visualize the
future of that decision way, way, way down the road. I also rely solely on past
experiences to alter my decisions for today.
I believe applying optimal dynamic
decision analysis to my everyday decision making would definitely improve my
ability to make better decisions. Based off the fact that I apparently use the
wrong way on a daily basis, this way should definitely improve my abilities. If
I could learn to look at and utilize other options then maybe the way I make decisions could start changing and making the outcomes better.
Hoch, S. J., & Kunreuther, H. C. (2005). Wharton on making decisions. (1st edition.). Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
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